Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 7.916634 9.103695 10.384667 11.866819 13.531473 15.340277 17.451313
2026-01-11 6.122881 7.712487 9.564088 11.868315 14.646080 17.873135 21.891358
2026-01-18 5.120544 6.847061 8.960468 11.715730 15.188260 19.392806 24.839011
2026-01-25 4.423264 6.242119 8.569669 11.731502 15.874280 21.072775 28.037654
2026-02-01 3.923163 5.803585 8.304581 11.824277 16.590857 22.754832 31.249414
2026-02-08 3.458327 5.348816 7.955907 11.747463 17.040844 24.076739 34.023883
2026-02-15 3.063875 4.941753 7.620791 11.637668 17.404903 25.265443 36.639087
2026-02-22 2.781434 4.663835 7.434482 11.706032 17.996483 26.765850 39.720189
2026-03-01 2.604365 4.524199 7.431030 12.026223 18.948369 28.793621 43.605776
2026-03-08 2.327650 4.196998 7.112539 11.843169 19.138110 29.729192 45.963990
2026-03-15 2.014295 3.776036 6.609612 11.332368 18.791700 29.850345 47.125313
2026-03-22 1.907112 3.689811 6.629260 11.635147 19.694066 31.841335 51.101939
2026-03-29 1.783581 3.566389 6.582876 11.835418 20.458688 33.678446 54.959714
2026-04-05 1.620416 3.355478 6.372327 11.749495 20.759634 34.817255 57.804608
2026-04-12 1.470085 3.151213 6.153671 11.628484 20.985999 35.835292 60.485608
2026-04-19 1.354848 3.001018 6.016390 11.633535 21.413629 37.179787 63.719062
2026-04-26 1.263895 2.888370 5.936227 11.729377 21.992335 38.781661 67.411249
2026-05-03 1.158235 2.734654 5.766988 11.651799 22.264575 39.888994 70.341542
2026-05-10 1.059012 2.583279 5.588928 11.543243 22.471310 40.888395 73.122762
2026-05-17 0.989689 2.487895 5.510176 11.610960 22.987542 42.417352 76.820890
2026-05-24 0.953321 2.460808 5.563121 11.928929 23.965019 44.759257 81.948904
2026-05-31 0.867885 2.314149 5.363795 11.747156 24.019628 45.517903 84.430594
2026-06-07 0.759647 2.101930 5.011584 11.240008 23.441008 45.147236 84.964251